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2007
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(2007): Systèmes complexes sociaux et validation empirique. In: Sociétés 98 (4). DOI: 10.3917/soc.098.0053
1977
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(1977): Resilience, Hypotheticality and Computers. Designing Social Systems under Uncertainty. In: Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society (121/5), S. 346-349
Abstract: OVER TWO THOUSAND years ago, Archimedes invented some formidable, for his time, machines. And, in a moment of forgivable boastfulness, he isreported to have said: "Give me where to stand, and I shall move the earth." Since his day, man- kind has generated the energy to move the earth and has set about transforming it, often to our satisfaction, not infrequently to our regret. And we know where is Archimedes' place to stand: technology. About twenty-five years ago, computing machines made their appearance. A computing machine is a means for multiplying mankind's capacity to generate, manage, and apply information, just as Archimedes' machines were force- multiplying devices. Where energy machines give us the power to alter natural systems, to fashion the physical world to a state we believe we shall like better, information machines may give us expanded analytical power to foresee the conse- quences of technological choice. However, much of the computer simulation of social and physical systems falls far short of demonstrating the reality of this hope. Economic models do not yet provide unambiguous direction to economic planners. The use by the Club of Rome's Limits to Growth project, of what Gerald Piel calls the "awesome authority of the computer" to forecast a dismal fate for mankind, undoubtedly helped catch the public's attention. But whether it advanced the reputation of computer simulation of complex social processes is more debatable.
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